UFC Fight Night 120 - Statistical Analysis

Date: Sunday 12th November, 3am (UK)

Location: Norfolk, Virginia, US

Venue: Ted Constant Convocation


Dustin Poirier vs Anthony Pettis

Anthony Pettis is back in the lightweight division and vows to march back towards the title he previously owned. Standing in his way is fellow UFC veteran Dustin Poirier, who is coming off his controversial ‘no-contest’ scrap with Eddie Alvarez. The fight ended prematurely when Poirier took a few illegal knees to the head when he was on the ground and instead of a rematch he meets Pettis in a fight producing just as much anticipation.

Pettis became a superstar when he became the lightweight champion in 2013 but three straight losses after his first defence forced him to try his hand in the lighter featherweight division. The weight cut proved too taxing and he decided to move back up to lightweight and after a win over Jim Miller, he is carrying confidence that he can regain the form that earned him the belt. 

See below for the statistical breakdown. The key stat highlighted is the fact that this bout is at lightweight – where a rejuvenated Pettis belongs. As you can see by the stats, these guys are as evenly matched as they are exciting to watch and are fully expected to put on a show in Virginia.

Poirier v Pettis.JPG

Matt Brown vs Diego Sanchez

The stage is set for Matt Brown’s retirement party and what better way for it to be co-hosted by another UFC veteran and fan-favourite, Diego Sanchez, in what will be their combined 49th UFC fight. Both these sluggers emerged onto the UFC scene as contestants on The Ultimate Fighter – Matt Brown on season seven and Diego Sanchez all the way back in 2005 on the very first season.

Sanchez went on to win the first reality series whereas Brown fell short in the quarter-finals but both men have been immensely popular for their entire career with aggressive and exciting fighting skills. Interestingly, Sanchez won the tournament as a middleweight but endured most of his career as a lightweight and even had a fight at featherweight so will be giving up a lot of weight and size to Brown.  

The key stat highlighted in our statistical breakdown is Brown’s form. This is his last fight and he will not accept another loss to finish off his record. He is desperate for a win against the smaller Sanchez, but is still expected to put on another warrior-like performance.

Brown v Sanchez.JPG

Junior Albini vs Andrei Arlovski

Junior Albini has only had one UFC fight but is ranked #11 in the heavyweight division, showing just how shallow it is at the moment. That said, he has all the potential to contend for the title and on a 10-fight win streak, the young Brazilian is going to take some stopping. The gatekeeper and veteran, Andrei Arlovski, is just the name Albini needs on his record and after Marcin Tybura inflicted his fifth straight loss, there may not be a better time to take on the legend. 

As Albini has only had one UFC fight, take the striking and grappling stats with a pinch of salt, but the glaring difference in our statistical breakdown is their experience. The 26-year-old has only had 16 professional fights whereas the Belarussian has had 41 in his illustrious career. Although their form could not be more contrasting, the experience of Arlovski or the youth of Albini could hold the key to the changing of the guard.

Albini v Arlovski.JPG

Nate Marquardt vs Cezar Ferreira

A middleweight contest between two more experienced men. Cezar Ferreira is coming off his first loss in four fights and is hoping to deliver Nate Marquardt his third loss in a row. Both fighters are incredibly well-rounded, in particular, Marquardt who possess lethal knockout power as well as some of the most seasoned grappling in MMA. His 2nd degree black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Jujutsu is complimented by a foundation of Wrestling and Judo so you would expect him to dominate on the mat. It may not be that simple however, as Ferreira is a master in his own right, proudly owning a 3rd degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

The key stats highlighted in the statistical breakdown is the significant striking accuracy of Marquardt. They are both exceptional grapplers with skills that may cancel each other out so the explosive power of Marquardt may swing the bout in his favour.

Marquardt v Ferreira.JPG

Raphael Assuncao vs Matthew Lopez

This will be Matthew Lopez’ toughest test of his career so far as Raphael Assuncao will arrive to the cage with serious pedigree as always. The Brazilian’s only loss in 10 fights came to TJ Dillashaw who now holds the belt after knocking out Cody Garbrandt at UFC 217. He is vastly experienced and will be the favourite entering this contest but Lopez will carry confidence of his own with only one loss to his name; he possesses a tremendously well-rounded skill set and his natural finishing ability has really caught the eye of the fans. 

The key stat highlighted in our statistical breakdown is the height and reach of Lopez. Assuncao has all the experience on his side, fighting the very best in the division, but Lopez is a big bantamweight with power that could end the fight at any moment.

Assuncao v Lopez.JPG

Joe Lauzon vs Clay Guida

If there wasn’t enough experience on the card, two of the longest-serving UFC fighters kick it off. Joe Lauzon is the seventh and Clay Guida is the eighth longest-serving fighter on the roster who have been favourites of the UFC brass and fans with enthralling fighting styles that have earned them a host of fight bonuses.

Lauzon has the most fight bonuses in UFC history with an astounding 15 (tied with Nate Diaz), including the ‘Fight of the Year’ in 2012 against Jim Miller. Guida holds nine bonuses of his own as well as a ‘Fight of the Year’ which was in 2009 with Diego Sanchez.

The volume of these accolades is rare and although they are both reaching the end of their career, to see them battle it out together is a real treat for the fans. Let’s hope their performances live up to expectations. 

All of their stats in our breakdown should be taken into account as they are very evenly matched but the colossal amount of submission wins they have both amassed is impossible to ignore. The fight can really go anywhere as they both love to slug it out as much as they like to grapple but the size advantage for Lauzon will be an obstacle for Guida.

Lauzon v Guida.JPG